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Good question!

As a local business owner I have a vested interest in whether consumers in our area are going to be loosening their purse strings during the Christmas and high-season. I am not alone in this, tourism and retail sales figure greatly in the success and failure of many local businesses. With the decline in consumer confidence over the course of the economic downturn, we have seen a belt tightening not experienced in this area since the 1992, the last time the Florida economy actually had negative growth.

According to a St. Petersburg Times article from August 2008, in the last national recession, in 2001, Florida's economy continued to grow, albeit slowly. You have to go back to the second quarter of 1992 to find another downturn, a mere 0.2 percent, which pales in comparison to our current situation.

The newest University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research report released last week states that consumers are buying the argument that the worst of the recession is over and that we have avoided complete meltdown. Perceptions about overall US economic conditions over the next year and five years have risen. However, perceptions about personal finances both now and in the future are down. Which means that people believe that if you have the money, it's a good time to buy and that there are some signs that the economy is improving. Unemployment in the state is still at 10.7 percent and isn't expected to improve until next year. Florida is also loosing population and could continue to do so as the underlying problems preventing people from moving lessen.

Tourism is also down as consumers trim discretionary spending. Boy, isn't that the truth? Do you know anyone who has gone on a vacation that wasn't to a place where they had family or a free place to stay or unless they got the deal of the century and didn't have to fly to get there? While retail in our area remains a tough business, we are still an amazing tourist destination and while our area continues to be plagued with high unemployment and a sagging economy, the high-season will bring in tourists from other areas of the country not so badly hit and maybe, just maybe, we can prosper a little during season, at least enough to hang on long enough to ride out the difficult economic times.

Mary Mather
Owner, Handbag Heaven & Boutique

Sources:
Recession has arrived in Florida, economists say
Helen Huntley, Times Personal Finance Editor
In Print: Friday, August 1, 2008

Florida's consumer confidence rises as economic fears ease
September 29, 2009

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